構建輸入性登革熱風險預警量化指標體系的研究

Construction of quantified appraisal system of imported risk of dengue fever

作者： 廖如燕；陳胤瑜；毛琛

機構： 廣州出入境檢驗檢疫局

【摘要】　目的　結合有關文獻,篩選輸入性登革熱風險預警量化評價的指標,構建科學、合理、準確和量化的輸入性登革熱風險預警評價指標體系。方法　采用德爾菲法(Delphi) 設計,就指標體系的每一項指標選定專家進行征詢,選定的專家按重要性分值1、3、5分對評價指標進行評價。結果　剔除了59 項三級指標要求中的9 項,保留了50 項(占84. 7 %) ;專家對整體《評價表》的重要性評價均值為3. 50 ,一級指標要求為3. 85 ,二級指標要求為3. 56 ,三級指標要求為3. 44 ,顯示《評價表》的重要性較高, 專家的意見集中程度較好; 專家對總體指標意見的協調系數為0. 33( P < 0. 05) ,對一級指標意見的協調系數為0. 56 ( P < 0. 05) ,對二級指標意見的協調系數為0. 48( P < 0. 05) ,對三級指標意見的協調系數為0. 31 ( P < 0. 05) ,本次研究的專家意見協調程度較好。結論　該評價表的構建可為輸入性登革熱的監測提供科學、合理、準確和量化的評價工具。

【Abstract】　Objective 　To select the indexes from the related literatures to form an appraising table sheet , and to provide the surveillance of imported dengue fever with a scientific , useful , easy operating and quantified appraising tool. Methods 　Delphi model was adopted to concentrate the advices of the experts specializing in the field of dengue fever. The engaged experts scaled all of the indexes , and gave the importance value to each index by the importance grade value of 5 , 3 , and 1. Results 　According to the advices of the experts , 9 indexes were eliminated from the 59 given third grade indexes , and 50 (84.7 %) of them were retained. The experts put the importance of the average weight value of 3. 50 to the whole appraising table sheet, 3.85 to the first grade indexes, 3.56 to the second grade indexes, and 3.44 to the third grade indexes. The harmony coefficient on the indexes system was 0. 33 ( P<0. 05), and 0. 56 ( P < 0. 05) to the first grade indexes , 0. 48( P < 0. 05) to the second grade indexes and 0. 31 ( P < 0. 05) to the third grade indexes. Conclusions 　Construction of this appraising table tool for the surveillance a scientific , useful , easy operating and quantified appraising tool for the surveillance of imported dengue fever.

【關鍵詞】　登革熱；輸入風險；指標體系；評價研究

【Key word】　Dengue; Imported risk; Indicators system; Evaluation studies

( Chin J Dis Control Prev 2009 ,13 (3) :3372341 )

中文刊名：中華疾病控制雜志, 2009年 03期